Donald Trump is no Grover Cleveland: Why Trump won’t win in 2024
There has been growing speculation that soon-to-be-former president Donald Trump will pursue a presidential run in 2024, despite calls from many within his own party not to do so. A former president running after a loss is unconventional in modern politics, but it isn’t without precedent over the course of American history.
Arguably the most famous example comes from Theodore Roosevelt. The 26th president left the presidency in 1909, passing the torch to his handpicked successor, William Howard Taft. Roosevelt eventually grew disillusioned with Taft and the direction of the Republican Party, deciding to run third-party under the newly created Progressive Party. To this day, Roosevelt is the most successful third-party challenger in history. He secured 27.4% of the vote and 88 electoral votes, defeating Taft in the vote share (23.2%, 8 electoral votes), but coming up short against Democratic Woodrow Wilson (41.8%, 435 electoral votes).
Other notable examples include Martin Van Buren, Millard Fillmore, and Herbert Hoover. All three presidents had hoped for a second, non-consecutive term, though only the first two secured official party nominations. Despite their nominations, both Van Buren and Fillmore lost their general elections. Others such as Franklin Pierce were encouraged to pursue a second term after office, but declined.
The track record for presidents pursuing non-consecutive terms is not great, but there is an exception. In comes the 22nd and 24th president — Democratic president Grover Cleveland. To this day, Cleveland remains the only successful non-consecutive serving president. Cleveland won the 1884 election, narrowly defeating Republican James G. Blaine by just over 57,000 votes and becoming the first Democratic president since the Civil War. Cleveland was well-liked in the Democratic Party and secured the party nomination for reelection in 1888 unanimously, also becoming the first incumbent president to win renomination within his party since Ulysses S Grant in 1872 (for roughly 70 years in the 1800s, the presidency was dominated by one-term presidents). The Republican Party, meanwhile, nominated Benjamin Harrison, a former Senator from Indiana and the grandson of former president William Henry Harrison. In a fate both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can sympathize with, Cleveland won the popular vote (48.6% to 47.8%) but ended up losing the electoral college vote (168–233).
Cleveland was disappointed in his loss, but accepted defeat. His wife, Frances, less so. She reportedly told a staff member when the Clevelands were leaving the White House, “Now, Jerry, I want you to take good care of all the furniture and ornaments in the house, for I want to find everything just as it is now, when we come back again.” Frances was certain that, “We are coming back four years from today.” Cleveland returned to private life and worked casually at a law firm, refraining from criticizing his successor until 1891 when he became a vocal critic of Harrison’s tariff policies and an increase in money backed by silver — Cleveland being a supporter of the gold-standard.
Cleveland was renominated by the Democratic Party for the 1892 election. Harrison also secured renomination by the Republican Party. Thanks to Cleveland’s continued popularity and the decline in support of Harrison’s economic policies of bimetallism (a monetary standard where the dollar is defined by its value on both the value of gold and silver), Cleveland defeated Harrison in the popular vote (expanding his popular vote victory to over 380,000 votes) and the electoral college, defeating Harrison 277–145, becoming the first and so far only president to serve non-consecutive terms.
Now what the hell does an 1880s Democrat have to do with Donald Trump? It’s simple — Trump is hoping to pull a Cleveland. But, the fact is this; Donald Trump is no Grover Cleveland. For one thing, Cleveland had both electoral and popular vote victories in his column. Cleveland is one of only three individuals in history to have won the popular vote three times. Similarly, Cleveland was well-liked and well-regarded by members within his own party and by independents. Polling data does not exist for that time, but Cleveland managed to carry a number of crucial swing states in the 1892 election. Cleveland also benefitted from the people’s desire to return to the “era of Cleveland,” as the economy had seen a downward spiral that would subsequently lead to the Panic of 1893 under Harrison’s watch. Harrison also faced stiff opposition in his party given the poor perception of his single-term in office.
So what would Trump need to not only secure his party’s nomination and win in the 2024 general election? For starters, he needs to be eligible to run. As of this writing, Trump is embroiled in a second impeachment trial, the first time any president in American history has been impeached twice. If Trump is convicted in the Senate, he would be barred from serving in federal office again, making a 2024 run impossible.
But, say he is not convicted and can legally run again in 2024, Trump is still in a myriad of legal and financial trouble. While Cleveland returned to practice law after his first term, Trump will be on the other side of the law.
There is also the difference in management between Cleveland and Trump during their lame-duck periods. Cleveland lost and conceded the election swiftly, while continuing governance in the final months of his presidency, looking forward to retuning to private life and spending time with his family. He left on good terms. Conversely, Trump has spent his final weeks promoting conspiracy theories about election fraud and a rigged election, pressuring elected officials to change the electoral outcome, igniting an insurrection on the Capitol building, and being impeached for the second time in the most bipartisan impeachment vote in history.
On paper, Cleveland and Trump appear to have much in common, Cleveland having faults of his own. They both hailed from New York. Both men had salacious scandals prior to their elections (Cleveland’s a paternity suit, Trump the Access Hollywood tape). They each were physically unhealthy individuals (both men weighing around 250 pounds) and they both ran on changing the status quo with mixed results in their actual time in office. But while Cleveland left office well-regarded, Trump has burned nearly every bridge he has.
Due to the nature of how the Republican Party primary is organized, Trump does still have a shot at securing the nomination. But on the extremely unlikely chance he were able to, it feels far more likely he’d wind up like Van Buren and Fillmore — a past president who ran, secured a party nomination, and lost miserably.
And one final note. Trump has made 30,529 false or misleading statements in his 1,455 days in office. Cleveland earned a nickname which Trump would be beyond envious of — Grover the Good, thanks to Cleveland’s personal integrity and honesty. Trump is not and never could be Cleveland.
